According to CBO, the net cost of the coverage expansions in the Senate Finance mark would be more than offset by the combination of other spending changes that CBO estimates would save $404 billion over the 10 years and other provisions that JCT and CBO estimate would increase federal revenues by $196 billion over the same period. The $196 billion figure includes $180 billion in additional revenues (estimated by JCT) apart from receipts from the excise tax on high-premium insurance plans and $16 billion in additional revenues from certain Medicare and Medicaid provisions (estimated by JCT and CBO).
$196 billion [increased revenues from provisions in Senate Finance mark] = $180 billion [additional revenues apart from excise tax on high-premium plans] + $16 billion [additional revenues from Medicare and Medicaid provisions]
CBO estimates that the cost of insurance coverage provisions in H.R.3962 would be more than offset by the combination of other spending changes and by receipts resulting from the income tax surcharge on high-income individuals and other provisions, which JCT and CBO estimate would increase federal revenues by $572 billion over that period. The $572 billion figure includes $558 billion in revenues from tax provisions (estimated by JCT) and $14 billion in additional revenues from certain provisions affecting Medicare, Medicaid, and other programs (estimated by JCT and CBO).
$572 billion [receipts resulting from the income tax surcharge and other provisions] = $558 billion [revenues from tax provisions] +$14 billion [additional revenues from provisions affecting Medicare, Medicaid, and other programs]
As with costs, revenues are not expected to affect the federal deficit in a significant way until 2015.
JCTestimates that the income tax surcharge on high-income individuals provision in H.R. 3962 would generate about $68 billion inadditional revenues in 2019, and those revenues are growing a littlefaster than 5 percent per year toward the end of the 10-year budgetwindow. As a rough approximation, CBO assumes continued growthat about that rate during the following decade.
All figures presented below are based on CBO cost estimates which can be found here:
